What the BTC gamma flip is
Dealers who sell options hedge by trading the underlying. When they are long gamma, they sell into rallies and buy dips, which tends to calm price. When they are short gamma, they hedge in the direction of the move, which tends to extend it. The gamma flip is the modeled BTC price where the total changes sign: a regime boundary, not a target.
Bitcoin's perpetual futures carry more open interest than any other coin's, so BTC liquidations, funding and open interest tend to set the tone for the rest of the market. It is one of the two coins, with ETH, where Markov also models options dealer gamma.
How Markov models it for BTC
From Derive's BTC option chains, read by Markov's collector. For each option: GEX = gamma × open interest × spot² × 0.01, the dollar change in delta per 1% move, with calls counted + and puts −. Strikes within ±30% of spot and expiries up to 35 days are included.
The flip is where total GEX crosses zero nearest to spot, found by re-pricing every option's gamma with Black-Scholes (its own implied volatility and time to expiry) on a grid of spot ±30% in 0.25% steps. The call wall and put wall are the strikes with the largest call and put GEX.
It is drawn dashed on the chart by the Options walls layer, on the Elite plan ($99/month plus tax), refreshed every 60 seconds while shown. The collector caches each answer for 5 minutes.
What could be wrong with it
Here are three assumptions, stated plainly. The sign (calls +, puts −) is the standard dealer heuristic, and it can be wrong when traders, not dealers, are short the options. Derive is one options venue, not the whole crypto options market, and Markov's access to Deribit data is still pending. And open interest says how many options exist, not who holds them.
Gamma is regime and risk context. The backtest evidence we've seen suggests its independent edge largely disappears once the volatility regime is known, so Markov never frames it as a signal.
What the panel on this page shows
It shows only measured context: BTC's price and its prior-day and session levels from Hyperliquid candles, which the free chart also draws. The modeled flip itself is on the chart with the Elite plan, and this page explains how it is made so you can judge it.
Defined in the glossary: gamma flip, gamma exposure (gex), call wall and put wall, measured vs modeled. The methodology says how every number is made, with its limits. Markov provides research tools and education, not financial advice.